A no deal scenario would have far reaching ramifications on the legal residence, employment, benefits and pensions rights, and health care of nearly 1 million UK nationals living on the continent.
Thirty months after the UK’s referendum and with time running out, EU member states are only now offering some reassurances on citizens’ rights.
France was the first member state to table a draft legislative proposal. Put forward in October 2018, it would enable UK nationals working in the French government to avoid a general ban on employment. Italy followed in December 2018 when it announced it would allow all current registered or permanent residents to stay. In January of this year, the Dutch government published its plans for a 15-month transition period in the case of no deal, during which all municipally registered UK citizens will be able to apply for a national residence permit on the same basis as other EU nationals. The Spanish government has promised to reveal its contingency plan shortly, but in the meantime has agreed a partial deal with the UK government on voting rights. It is anticipated that other EU member states will follow suit over the coming weeks however many countries lack full registration for all resident UK nationals and countries without compulsory registration may have to consider introducing new systems for UK nationals to register. These all take time.
While much is possible through unilateral action, including granting residents the right to stay and access to labor markets, other areas, such as social security coordination and healthcare, require bilateral agreement. Further complicating things, member states have been instructed by the European Commission to refrain from entering into bilateral agreements, arrangements and discussions with the UK as it is trying to balance two competing priorities: (i) a desire to manage the significant costs that come with the failure to reach a deal and (ii) a reduction in the chaos and disruption to businesses and citizens that will inevitably follow Brexit.
The worst case scenario means waiting for the deal to be unequivocally dead at which time many UK nationals will be left unprotected. Those forced to return to the UK could also be confronted with challenges at home including delays accessing the National Health Service and benefits reserved for those who are ordinarily resident.
