Following the dramatic defeat of Theresa May’s Brexit deal in parliament this week, the likelihood of a no deal Brexit when the UK leaves the EU on March 29 looks increasingly likely.
Contingency planning to protect the rights and status of more than 3 million EU nationals in the UK and UK nationals in the EU had previously been shelved despite considerable consensus on this topic throughout the joint negotiations partly because citizens’ rights were seen as an important bargaining tool by both sides and the European Commission – keen to avoid breaking the bloc and in an attempt to balance duelling priorities of managing the significant costs that come with no deal and minimising disruption for companies and citizens – imposed a moratorium on bilateral discussions with the UK outside of official negotiations.
But there is only so much that is possible to achieve unilaterally, and waiting for the deal to be unequivocally dead may mean waiting until Brexit Day when many will be left unprotected. Bilateral deals take time to negotiate, ratify and implement. Because of the uncertainty, the European Commission’s policy has shifted and Member States are now being urged to take a generous approach to the protection of citizens in the case of a no deal Brexit by any means necessary.
Existing deficiencies in municipal registration systems and barriers to accessing healthcare are likely to be amplified by a no deal Brexit in ways that cannot be anticipated. Stopgap measures while unwieldy and cumbersome are necessary to ensure the continued operation of the system. Some measures already announced in Italy and the Netherlands will be based on municipal registration systems, but not all EU countries require full registration of all resident UK nationals. In some places, barriers to registration have created a state of limbo for mobile EU citizens. Where registration is not compulsory or countries have large numbers of seasonal residents, such as Spain and Cyprus, there may likely be chronic levels of under-registration and countries without compulsory registration may have to consider introducing new systems for UK nationals to register.
The next hurdle to be surmounted relates to the documentary evidence that will be needed to support registration. Any requirement to show backdated documents, such as evidence of years of work or residence, necessarily creates a tradeoff between inclusiveness and deterring fraud. Questions remain as to whether people will be required to show evidence of legal residence in order to be able to remain. Italy has promised to get rid of this requirement following the UK’s promise to do so in relation to EU nationals.
Areas with large numbers of British residents could find that the processing of residence applications create a burden in local government resources due to the volume of applicants. The town of Dordogne in France was already struggling to cope with the carte de séjour system, which was overbooked to such an extent that British citizens were taking appointments slated for non-European applicants. Germany has promised British citizens a three-month grace period after the effective date to obtain a German residency title.
